Watch Hurricane Ian Landfall as a cat with 155 mph winds

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

The eye of Hurricane Ian has sustained winds at 155 mph making it a very dangerous Category 4, almost Category 5. This status won’t matter because it will be devastating! A new high wind warning has been issued for southwest Florida for winds above 100 mph in and around the eyewall.

This will rank among the 5 strongest storms ever recorded in the continental United States. See this list below.

A new Storm Surge map shows potential for an 18-foot water level rise in and around Fort Meyers!

Also below is the live radar, new satellite loop and predictive radar simulation showing the eye reaching the east coast on Thursday evening and possibly regaining strength above water.

The National Hurricane led its updates with headlines like this:



Hurricane Ian: September 28, Wednesday set-up

Doppler radar snapshot at 11 a.m.

This split screen displays reflectivity on the left and velocity on the right.

Wind estimated at 174 mph gusting!

The eyewall should hit the ground for the first time around noon. The eye itself may take another 1-3 hours to reach the beaches.

11 a.m. – Category 4

Quick Stats

  • Winds are 155 mph (sustained at the surface)
  • Moving NNE 9 mph
  • Located 120 km from Naples, 170 km from Punta Gorda
  • Hurricane-force winds reach 40 miles from the center.
  • Tropical storm-force winds extend 175 miles from the center.

Snapshot visible by satellite. See IR loop (enhanced color) below.

Storms that make landfall with winds of 155 mph or more include:

  1. 185 mph in 1935 – Labor Day (unnamed)
  2. 280 km/h in 1969 – Camille
  3. 165 mph in 1992 – Andrew
  4. 160 mph in 2018 – Michael

Storm name history/removal

Since 1954, 94 storm names have been retired.

I named storms are 13 of them.

Since 2000, 44 storm names have been removed.

Among them, 11 started with the letter I. This will be number 12.

This eye will hit Southwest Florida today. The final runway has changed and appears to be heading towards Fort Meyers with a storm surge of up to 12ft!

This is better news for Tampa, but it’s still horrible what’s going to happen. The National Hurricane led its updates with headlines like this: …BOT TO CAUSE DEADLY, CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE


Live radar below:

IR satellite loop

The pop-out video has a composite of different spectra this morning.

Hurricane Ian IR Satellite Loop Wednesday 11 a.m.

Landing forecast


Radar simulation: 3 km NAM model

2:00 p.m. Wed Sept. 28 to 10:00 p.m. Thurs. Sept. 29

The eye is expected to cross Florida and reach the coast near Daytona Beach on Thursday evening. It will weaken into a tropical storm, but could strengthen over water before hitting again near Savanah, Georgia.

Hurricane Ian September 28 simulation radar in Florida

Forecast Tracker: Florida Peninsula

It can take up to 36 hours to cross Florida and eventually reappear over Atlantic waters near Daytona Beach. It’s north of Titusville and Cape Canaveral that the strongest team hits there. NASA has already postponed the launch of Artemis again for this storm.

NEW storm surge forecast

With the improved wind, the water wall also increased.

Yes, up to 18 feet for Englewood to Bonita Beach including Charlotte Harbor.

Storm surge model Estimated floods

NHC Storm Surge Report

The combination of storm surge and tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast that will be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shore. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the areas shown if

the surge peak occurs at the time of high tide…

*Englewood to Bonita Beach including Charlotte Harbor…12-18 feet

* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood…6-10 feet

* Bonita Beach at Chokoloskee…8-12 feet

* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sand…5-8 feet

*From the Anclote River to the middle of Longboat Key including Tampa Bay…4-6


* Suwannee River to Anclote River…3 to 5 feet

* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key including the

Dry Tortugas…3-5 feet

*Flagler/Volusia County line to the South Santee River including St.

Johns River…3 to 5 feet

* St. Johns River south of Julington…2-4 feet

* East Cape Sand to Card Sound Bridge…2-4ft

* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key…2-4 feet

* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line…1-3 feet

* North of the South Santee River in Surf City NC…1-3 feet

Watches and Warnings

A hurricane warning is in effect for…

* Chokoloskee to Anclote River including Tampa Bay

* Dry turtles

*Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line

A storm surge warning is in effect for…

* Suwannee River south to Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key west to Key West

* Dry turtles

* Flagler/Volusia line to the mouth of the South Santee River

* Saint John River

A tropical storm warning is in effect for…

* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas

* Indian Pass at the Anclote River

* All Florida Keys

* Flamingo at Sebastian Inlet

*Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet

* Flamingo in Chokoloskee

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida Bay

* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

Forecast Tracking: Bigger View

If it reaches the Atlantic, it will pick up more water due to rain and a storm surge for South Carolina. There may be a northwesterly curve, then an inland curve and eventually a northerly path to the mid-Atlantic.

Risk of flash flooding with a second landing

Heavy rain will come up the coast.

Click here to see my morning article on Maryland and Mid-Atlantic rain through early next weekk.

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Hurricane Ian may help change the cooling pattern: watch atmospheric memory this winter


If you want a snowy winter, that’s what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

August record for unnamed tropical storms: Take a closer look at the snow that follows

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